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Zonda Demographics provides enrollment projections for roughly 100 school districts in Texas, according to data from the company. Rocky Gardiner, the company's director of school district consulting, said the company produces both short-term and long-term projections, up to 10 years.
The details: Gardiner said district leaders use the short-term, one-year projections to guide staffing and budget planning, and long-term projections to plan when to open or close a school.
“We have the technology to help them see what it looks like if a school gets closed or a school gets added with how that impacts their enrollment going forward,” Gardiner said.
Zooming in: Predicting school enrollment has become more complicated since COVID-19 due to more school options such as virtual schools, homeschooling and charter schools, Gardiner said.
When Gardiner first started doing enrollment projections in 2006, the projections were primarily based on new housing, with the development patterns showing an average of about six new public school students per 10 new homes built, but that number has dropped, Gardiner said.
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